This playbook translates Freeze–Vote–Rebuild into a checklist of priorities and safeguards relevant to Russia as a participating party. It is written as an operational evaluation tool, not as a political endorsement.
Primary Goals (Process-Focused)
Secure a stable Freeze that reduces battlefield risk and escalation.
Ensure verification and incident handling are consistent and not politicized.
Ensure the Vote phase has clear rules and predictable legitimacy criteria.
Establish a credible path from compliance to conditional benefits (where applicable).
Avoid open-ended commitments without defined reciprocity and gates.
Key Risks
Monitoring Bias: Monitoring perceived as biased, leading to non-cooperation and rapid collapse.
Ambiguity: Vague ceasefire terms producing repeated incidents and escalation.
Legitimacy Crisis: Vote processes viewed as illegitimate or unsafe, leading to rejection of outcomes.
Non-Credible Conditionality: Reconstruction and sanctions conditionality being vague or non-credible.
Unbounded Concessions: Domestic politics turning the process into an open-ended concession path.
Non-Negotiables / Redlines (Operational)
Explicit Terms: Published ceasefire terms with defined prohibited actions and verification rules.
Consistent Reporting: Monitoring and reporting methods that are transparent (classification rubric, evidence standards).
Time-Bounded Adjudication: Defined dispute resolution with fixed timelines (no indefinite accusations).
Reciprocal Linkage: Explicit link between verified compliance and any promised benefits.
Security Protections: Rules that protect both participants and mission personnel.
Leverage and Incentives (What to Seek)
Incentive Ladder: A published ladder tied to verification gates (what unlocks, when, and how it can be reversed).
Legal Approval Pathways: Clear domestic legal steps required for any sanctions or trade-related adjustments.
Predictable Escalation: An escalation ladder that prevents retaliation spirals driven by disputed incidents.
Rule-Locking: Transparent locking of Vote procedures to prevent midstream changes.
Operational Responsibilities
What must be prepared for implementation:
1. Freeze
Establish deconfliction liaison structures and participate in 24/7 hotlines.
Ensure monitor access to agreed areas and incident sites.
Comply with protected infrastructure and corridor rules.
Participate in incident adjudication procedures on established deadlines.
2. Vote
Accept and operationalize observer access rules and safety protocols.
Enable safe logistics for voting modalities under the agreed rulebook.
Participate in dispute resolution mechanisms and accept defined remedies.
3. Rebuild (If Applicable)
Comply with integrity conditions that govern funding flows and audits.
Support safe access conditions for reconstruction delivery where required.
Verification Demands (What to Insist On)
Standardized Classification: Use of defined severity (S1–S4) and confidence levels.
Chain-of-Custody: Independent evidence handling and verification rules.
Publication Policy: A policy that avoids operational security leaks while maintaining transparency.
Enforceable Deadlines: Dispute mechanisms with published reasoning and fixed timelines.
Numeric Gates: Gate definitions with numeric thresholds and measurement windows.
