Risk Register

This page is the working risk register for Freeze–Vote–Rebuild. It is designed to be updated as the framework is refined and as stakeholders stress-test assumptions.

How to Use This Register

For each risk, we track:

Phase: Freeze, Vote, Rebuild, or Cross-cutting.
Likelihood/Impact: Rated Low, Medium, or High.
Mitigations: Design choices intended to reduce the risk.
Linked Gates: The specific verification gate that monitors this risk.
Response Plan: The pre-committed action (pause, rollback, or remediate).

Central Risk Register

ID	Risk Statement	Phase	Likelihood / Impact	Early Warning Indicators	Mitigations	Linked Gates / Triggers	Response Plan
R-F1	Freeze used for regrouping	Freeze	Med / High	Unusual redeployments; spikes in restricted movements.	Explicit movement limits; pattern-based monitoring.	Freeze Stability Gate (S3/S4)	Pause incentives; escalation ladder level-up.
R-F2	Monitor obstruction	Freeze	Med / High	Denied site visits; delayed access; intimidation reports.	Obstruction = S4 violation; redundant technical verification.	Monitor Access Indicator	Immediate gate failure; tier rollback; publish findings.
R-F3	Corridor weaponization	Freeze	Med / High	Frequent closures; selective access; coercion claims.	Corridors Uptime KPI; rapid adjudication of closures.	Humanitarian Access Gate	Investigation window; consequences for recurrence.
R-V1	Coercion distorts Vote	Vote	Med / High	Turnout anomalies; clustered complaints; observer threats.	Anti-coercion package; observer coverage; re-run triggers.	Vote Integrity / Certification Gate	Invalidate/re-run compromised precincts; extend window.
R-V2	Displaced people excluded	Vote	Med / High	Low registration; high rejection rates; access barriers.	Explicit displaced categories; proof ladders; appeals.	Vote Readiness Gate (Inclusion Metrics)	Extend registration; deploy extra centers; reopen appeals.
R-V3	Cyber compromise	Vote	Med / High	System outages; integrity alerts; intrusion reports.	Audit-first design; offline fallbacks; independent testing.	Vote Readiness & Integrity Gates	Switch to fallback mode; isolate systems; investigate.
R-V4	Dispute resolution drag	Vote	Med / High	Backlog growth; missed deadlines; refusal to comply.	Strict timelines; limited appeal grounds; published decisions.	Certification Deadlines	Enforce deadlines; apply remedies; escalate via governance.
R-R1	Reconstruction capture	Rebuild	Med / High	Sole-source spikes; vendor concentration; audit flags.	Transparency Stack; independent audits; debarment.	Reconstruction Integrity Gate	Suspend tranches; debar vendors; replace operators.
R-R2	Rebuild too slow	Rebuild	Med / High	Pipeline stagnation; procurement delays; low KPIs.	Standardized templates; performance incentives.	Delivery KPIs in Tranche Gates	Re-sequence pipeline; adjust incentives; increase capacity.
R-X1	Incentives non-deliverable	Cross	Med / High	Legislative resistance; lack of legal authority.	Domestic Approvals Gate; activation clauses.	Domestic Approvals Gate	Revise incentive schedule; renegotiate commitments.
R-X2	Governance paralysis	Cross	Med / High	Deadlock; decision delays; transparency suppression.	Balanced composition; deadlock-breaking rules.	Governance Performance Indicators	Invoke deadlock rules; external arbitration; restructure.
R-X3	Data breach/privacy failure	Cross	Med / High	Unauthorized access logs; leaks; post-disclosure threats.	Data minimization; role-based access; secure audit rooms.	Data Governance Compliance Checks	Incident response; system pause; independent remediation.

Maintenance & Evolution

Iterative Review: Add new risks as they emerge during stakeholder review or operational deployment.
Condition Monitoring: Update Likelihood and Impact ratings as the security and political environment changes.
Audit Trail: Record all major mitigation decisions and risk-driven changes in the Decision Log.

Next Step: Would you like me to develop the Implementation Toolkit which includes the operational checklists for these response plans?