This playbook translates Freeze–Vote–Rebuild into a checklist of priorities and safeguards relevant to Ukraine as a primary affected party. It is written as an operational evaluation tool, not as a statement of political objectives.
Primary Goals (Process-Focused)
Secure Stabilization: Ensure any Freeze reduces civilian harm and is not a cover for adversary regrouping.
Inclusive Legitimacy: Prevent legitimacy from being defined by forced displacement or administrative exclusion.
Sovereignty Safeguards: Preserve sovereignty claims through a status-neutral process (no premature outcome lock-in).
Anti-Corruption Recovery: Ensure reconstruction governance protects public resources and utilizes digital transparency tools.
Security for Rebuilding: Maintain credible security conditions for participation and large-scale infrastructure investment.
Key Risks
Permanent "Frozen" Conflict: A Freeze with no credible path to a final status or legitimacy milestone.
Ineffective Monitoring: Monitor design that is toothless, easily obstructed, or lacks real-time reporting.
Electoral Coercion: Intimidation or administrative barriers during the Vote phase.
Turnout Gaming: Manipulation of results via displacement metrics or unit design.
Reconstruction Capture: Capture of recovery funds by corrupt networks or politicized procurement.
Non-Negotiables / Redlines (Operational)
Unobstructed Access: No obstruction or intimidation of monitoring (Freeze) or observation (Vote) missions.
Protected Infrastructure: Explicit registers for energy, health, and water infrastructure with measurable penalties for strikes.
Displaced Participation: Electorate rules must explicitly include IDPs and refugees with accessible registration.
Secret Ballot: Integrity of the vote with credible anti-coercion enforcement.
Audit Authority: Reconstruction governance with independent audits, debarment authority, and public dashboards.
Leverage and Incentives (What to Seek)
Verification-Tied Incentives: Conditional aid and adjustments tied to verifiable compliance, not "good faith."
Enforceable Access Rights: Security arrangements that grant monitors immediate access to incident sites.
Integrity Gates: Funding tranches (such as the Ukraine Facility) tied to audit results and milestone verification.
Rollback Clauses: Clear mechanisms to reverse benefits if monitoring is obstructed or ceasefire terms are violated.
Operational Responsibilities
What must be prepared for implementation:
1. Freeze
Designate liaison structures for 24/7 deconfliction channels.
Support monitor deployment logistics and security access.
Publish registers of protected infrastructure and urgent repair priorities.
Prepare incident reporting interfaces for rapid verification.
2. Vote
Establish/adapt legal authority for the legitimacy event (Domestic Approvals Gate).
Integrate voter rolls for displaced populations (coordinating with host countries).
Support observer deployment and mission security.
Stand up dispute resolution mechanisms with strictly enforced timelines.
3. Rebuild
Scale the DREAM (Digital Restoration Ecosystem for Accountable Management) for all projects.
Implement procurement standards aligned with EU and international norms.
Launch the transparency stack (Project Registry, Disbursement Ledger, Audit Cadence).
Empower anti-corruption bodies (NABU/SAPO) with debarment and clawback authority.
Verification Demands (What to Insist On)
Incident Rubric: Clear classification (S1–S4) with a public publication policy.
Automatic Consequences: Pre-defined penalties for monitor obstruction.
Version-Locked Rules: Published Vote rulebook that cannot be changed once the window opens.
Independent Audit: Third-party access to raw evidence for both elections and reconstruction.
Open Reporting: Real-time dashboards for reconstruction spending and progress.
