This playbook translates Freeze–Vote–Rebuild into a checklist of priorities and safeguards relevant to the US, EU, and G7 partners as guarantors, primary funders, and political stakeholders.
It is written as an operational evaluation tool, not as a statement of current commitment.
Primary Goals (Process-Focused)
Scale Stabilization: Reduce escalation risk while maintaining long-term leverage through economic and security gating.
Verification Integrity: Ensure the process is data-driven and resistant to manipulation by any party.
Enforceable Conditionality: Avoid rewarding non-compliance; make incentives (sanctions adjustments, aid) credible and reversible.
Democratic Legitimacy: Ensure Vote criteria are robust, specifically protecting against coercion and exclusion of displaced persons.
Auditable Reconstruction: Build an architecture (e.g., Ukraine Development Fund) that is fast, transparent, and EU-accession compliant.
Key Risks
Strategic Regrouping: A Freeze being used as cover for an adversary to re-arm or consolidate.
Monitoring Impotence: Missions that cannot operate freely due to access denial or "soft" obstruction.
Legitimacy Deficit: Vote failure (fraud or exclusion) that prevents international recognition of the outcome.
Legal/Legislative Failure: Promising incentives (like sanctions relief) that cannot survive domestic court challenges or Congressional/Parliamentary review.
Donor Fatigue: Reconstruction capture or corruption causing a collapse in political support in Western capitals.
Non-Negotiables / Redlines (Operational)
Unfettered Access: Independent monitoring with immediate, enforceable access rights to all incident sites.
Article 5-Style Guarantees: Security provisions (e.g., "Article 5 mirrors") that trigger automatically upon verified violations.
Electoral Standards: Comprehensive observation, digital audit trails, and anti-coercion measures for the Vote.
Inclusive Franchise: Explicit, high-confidence pathways for the 6M+ refugees and IDPs to participate.
Standardized Integrity: Reconstruction must use the DREAM system and a dedicated Audit Board (per Ukraine Facility standards).
Leverage and Incentives (How to Structure Support)
1. The Conditional Incentives Ladder
Stage any sanctions licensing or "extraordinary revenue" adjustments.
Tie each step to measurable gates: zero high-severity incidents, full monitor access, and audit pass-rates.
Make reversals automatic for defined S4 violations (e.g., strikes on protected energy infrastructure).
(See: Sanctions/Aid Linkage)
2. The $200B+ Funding Architecture
Use tranche-based disbursement tied to 20+ reform benchmarks (Ukraine Facility model).
Establish a Prosperity Administrator or similar high-level leader to oversee the Ukraine Development Fund.
Require the "Transparency Stack": project registries, disbursement ledgers, and real-time KPI dashboards.
(See: Reconstruction Architecture)
Operational Responsibilities
What partners must do to ensure framework durability:
Monitoring Capacity: Fund and staff independent monitoring (e.g., space-based and unmanned systems) to ensure early notification.
Refugee Participation: Host countries (Poland, Germany, etc.) must enable registration and secure voting for the displaced.
Security Provision: Deployment of European-led or "Article 5-mirror" security guarantees as a deterrent.
Procurement Discipline: Enforce OECD/EU anti-corruption standards as a non-negotiable condition of funding.
Verification Demands (What to Insist On)
Numeric Gate Thresholds: Clear pass/fail metrics for each phase.
"Audit of the Monitors": Independent meta-verification to ensure mission neutrality.
Cyber-Hardening: Support for the integrity of identity and voting systems.
Debarment Authority: Centralized list of entities banned from reconstruction for fraud or non-performance.
