Phased Timeline

This chapter provides a practical sequencing template for Freeze–Vote–Rebuild. Exact durations are adjustable; what matters is the order, the verification gates, and the reversibility of commitments.

Overview of Phases

Phase 1: Freeze — Stop major combat, stand up monitoring and deconfliction, stabilize civilian conditions.
Phase 2: Vote — Conduct a supervised legitimacy process with agreed rules and integrity safeguards.
Phase 3: Rebuild — Scale reconstruction through transparent governance, performance incentives, and auditing.

Each phase has:

an entry condition (what must already be true to start),
a set of deliverables (what must be built),
an exit gate (what must be verified to advance),
rollback triggers (what causes suspension or reversal).

Suggested Sequencing Template

Phase 0: Pre-Freeze Setup (Planning and Commitments)

Objective: Make the Freeze executable on day one.

Deliverables:

Draft ceasefire terms (geography, prohibited actions, reporting rules).
Monitoring/verification design and staffing plan.
Deconfliction channels and incident-handling SOPs.
Humanitarian access and protected infrastructure list.
Definition of verification gates and consequences.
Draft Vote rulebook outline (eligibility, observation, dispute resolution).
Draft Rebuild governance outline (procurement, audits, data transparency).

Exit Gate:

Parties and guarantors accept the initial operating package and publish the gate logic.

Phase 1: Freeze (Stabilization under Monitoring)

Objective: Reduce violence to a level that permits political process.

Deliverables:

Operational monitoring presence (or equivalent verification capability).
Incident reporting + classification system.
Deconfliction mechanisms (hotlines, joint incident room).
Humanitarian corridors/access arrangements.
Protected infrastructure protections and repair windows.
Compliance dashboard (public where feasible; restricted where necessary).

Exit Gate (Example):

Sustained reduction in major hostilities for a defined period.
Monitoring system functioning with independent reporting.
Dispute-resolution mechanisms operating (complaints processed, incidents adjudicated).

Rollback Triggers (Example):

Repeated high-severity violations.
Obstruction of monitoring.
Systematic attacks on protected infrastructure.

Phase 2: Vote (Legitimacy Process)

Objective: Produce a credible, supervised outcome.

Deliverables:

Final electorate definition (including displaced persons/refugees handling).
Voting modality plan (in-person/remote; identity and auditing).
Observation mission charter and deployment.
Anti-coercion measures and secure participation arrangements.
Published and version-locked rules (including any vote-to-border method).
Public simulation/sandbox (if outcomes map to territory/administration).
Dispute resolution and appeals process.

Exit Gate (Example):

Observers certify process integrity to agreed standards.
Disputes adjudicated and final results published.
Acceptance criteria met (e.g., turnout thresholds or other legitimacy conditions).

Rollback Triggers (Example):

Credible evidence of coercion or systemic fraud.
Inability to deploy observation or maintain voter safety.
Collapse of Freeze conditions before or during voting.

Phase 3: Rebuild (Reconstruction at Scale)

Objective: Convert stability and legitimacy into visible reconstruction.

Deliverables:

Reconstruction authority/governance structure.
Procurement standards and anti-corruption controls.
Independent auditing mechanisms.
Project pipeline and prioritization (energy, transport, housing, services).
Performance incentives (“Reconstruction Olympics”) and scoring/public reporting.
Funds disbursement tied to measurable delivery and integrity metrics.

Exit Gate (Example):

Reconstruction funds flow under audited controls.
Delivery KPIs trend positively (cost/time/quality).
Capture/corruption indicators remain below agreed thresholds.

Rollback Triggers (Example):

Audit failures or major corruption findings.
Diversion of funds to military escalation.
Systematic obstruction of transparency requirements.

A Note on Durations

Durations should be specified only after:

monitoring capacity and observation capacity are confirmed,
humanitarian access conditions are verified,
identity/voter registry feasibility is assessed.

Use this book’s later chapters to define: